All market prices, patient numbers, access timings, reference-pricing relationships and revenue outputs are illustrative demonstration assumptions.
Market potential is assessed using four linked dimensions: achievable net price, realistically treatable volume, speed and certainty of access, and potential cross-market price impact.
Illustrative achievable net price
Not the list price. The illustrative price assumed to survive HTA, mandatory rebates and clawback.
Illustrative treatable volume
Eligible patients times an illustrative realistic penetration, rather than epidemiological prevalence.
Illustrative speed and certainty
Assumed months to reimbursement and the illustrative risk that an assessment lands unfavourably.
Illustrative cross-market price impact
How far this market's visible price could be referenced elsewhere, which may matter more than its own size.
Germany
Illustrative call: Launch€13,522
Modelled achievable net per patient per year
- Illustrative attractiveness score
- 90/100
- Eligible patients
- 4,200
- Five year revenue
- 55.6m EUR
- Months to reimbursement
- 6
- HTA hurdle
- High
United Kingdom
Illustrative call: Launch€12,522
Modelled achievable net per patient per year
- Illustrative attractiveness score
- 78/100
- Eligible patients
- 3,000
- Five year revenue
- 30.4m EUR
- Months to reimbursement
- 9
- HTA hurdle
- Moderate
France
Illustrative call: Launch€11,146
Modelled achievable net per patient per year
- Illustrative attractiveness score
- 68/100
- Eligible patients
- 3,600
- Five year revenue
- 30.7m EUR
- Months to reimbursement
- 15
- HTA hurdle
- High
Sweden
Illustrative call: Launch€13,130
Modelled achievable net per patient per year
- Illustrative attractiveness score
- 66/100
- Eligible patients
- 700
- Five year revenue
- 9.4m EUR
- Months to reimbursement
- 7
- HTA hurdle
- Low
| Market | Eligible | Generic cost | Achievable net | Premium vs generic | Months | HTA route | Illustrative reference-pricing exposure index | Illustrative 5-year revenue | Illustrative entry call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 4,200 | €1,100 | €13,522 | 12.3x | 6 | G-BA benefit assessment, then AMNOG price negotiation | 100% | 55.6m EUR | Consider launch |
| United Kingdom | 3,000 | €1,050 | €12,522 | 11.9x | 9 | NICE single technology appraisal, VPAG rebate applies | 55% | 30.4m EUR | Consider launch |
| France | 3,600 | €950 | €11,146 | 11.7x | 15 | HAS ASMR rating, then CEPS negotiation | 85% | 30.7m EUR | Consider launch |
| Sweden | 700 | €1,050 | €13,130 | 12.5x | 7 | TLV value based assessment | 42% | 9.4m EUR | Consider launch |
| Netherlands | 900 | €1,000 | €11,971 | 12.0x | 12 | ZIN assessment, financial arrangement for higher budget impact | 50% | 8.8m EUR | Consider launch |
| Italy | 3,100 | €780 | €8,944 | 11.5x | 18 | AIFA negotiation with confidential managed entry agreement | 62% | 15.8m EUR | Consider later entry |
| Spain | 2,400 | €700 | €8,118 | 11.6x | 16 | AEMPS therapeutic positioning, then CIPM pricing | 58% | 10.7m EUR | Consider later entry |
| Poland | 1,800 | €520 | €4,954 | 9.5x | 22 | AOTMiT appraisal, risk sharing scheme required | 30% | 2.7m EUR | Consider later entry |
Bubble size represents illustrative reference-pricing exposure. Markets in the upper right combine greater modelled volume with a stronger achievable net price.
Germany
Free pricing is assumed for the first six months in this demonstration, followed by a negotiated price that several other markets may reference. The added benefit rating could strongly shape the outcome and would require validation.
France
A lower ASMR rating may cap the achievable premium. Convenience alone could be insufficient to lift the rating, so the renal endpoint is assumed in this demonstration to carry much of the case.
United Kingdom
Cost effectiveness driven, so adherence and avoided infusion costs could contribute directly to the modelled case. The clawback is assumed in this demonstration to erode the net price.
Italy
Assumed to be slower and price sensitive, and is treated in this demonstration as a market others may reference. Confidential arrangements could help and would require country-level validation.
Spain
Regional budgets may slow uptake further. A low visible price here is assumed in this demonstration to influence several other reference baskets.
Netherlands
Smaller volume, but assumed in this demonstration to be a disciplined referencing market that others may cite. Entry could be worth timing behind a defensible visible price.
Sweden
Assumed to be faster, value based and relatively tolerant of a rare disease premium. It could serve as an early proof point, which would require validation.
Poland
At a visible price, the wider corridor impact may exceed the local value in this demonstration. Later entry behind a confidential net price could be worth exploring.