The simulator uses illustrative reference-strength assumptions rather than reproducing the full statutory pricing rules of each country. A live model would require validation of reference baskets, price definitions, review timing and confidentiality arrangements.
User input
Illustrative German list price input, €17,200 at the recommended setting. US net price for reference: €61,500
User input
User input
An assumption about how aggressively authorities are taken to apply their baskets
User input
SE then NL then DE then UK then FR then IT then ES then PL
User input
User input
Recommended strategy reference: €11,900 blended net and €151m five-year revenue.
Illustrative blended net price
€11,192
at the current simulator setting
Recommended setting
Illustrative five-year EU revenue
164m EUR
at the current simulator setting
Recommended setting
Modelled revenue impact of referencing
1.4m EUR
at the current simulator setting
Recommended setting
US revenue at risk
Contained
at the current simulator setting
Recommended setting
The pale segment is the modelled price each market could have supported on its own that is lost to referencing under these assumptions.
Under these assumptions, the current model suggests that launching the largest volume markets first pulls the visible anchor down to roughly 72 percent of the German list, with referencing markets then settling below their own modelled potential. Entering the tolerant markets first keeps the simulated anchor closer to the corridor.
The simulated effect of turning confidentiality off is a loss of about seven points of net price across markets at once, because the discount becomes referenceable in the model. On these assumptions that switch may outweigh any volume a visible discount could buy.
Modelled average time to first reimbursement under this sequence is about 18 months per market.